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明日プロ野球セパ交流戦開幕。DH制のあるパ・リーグがやっぱり強そう | おかしくカエル!

明日プロ野球セパ交流戦開幕。DH制のあるパ・リーグがやっぱり強そう

こんにちは。

明日からプロ野球セ・パ交流戦が開幕です。

スポンサーリンク
レクタングル(大)広告

去年2015年シーズンは交流戦で色々ありました

  • セ・リーグ全チーム借金
  • DeNA交流戦史上最低勝率(勝率.176 3勝14敗1分)
  • セ・リーグ交流戦史上最低勝率

セ・リーグ全チーム借金は衝撃的でしたし、DeNAは交流戦開幕前首位からの転落劇も衝撃的でした

今年もパ・リーグが強そう

いろんな記事で論じられている通り、これまではパ・リーグが圧倒的で、今年もパ・リーグが勝つだろうというのが概ねの見解です。

交流戦のこれまでの勝敗は以下の通り(2005年~2015年)

セ・リーグ 分け パ・リーグ
774勝 53分 865勝

セ・リーグが勝ち越したのは2009年のみ。後は全てパ・リーグが勝ち越しています。

私も今年もパ・リーグが強いと思っています。

個々の選手もそうですが、やはりDH制の採用によりパ・リーグの方が投打の質が高いと考えています。

DH制の採用メリットは2つあると考えています。

1つ目は、指名打者(DH)という打撃専門の打者の存在が許されるということ。場合によっては打撃能力はチーム1という選手がDHになり得るため、基本的にレギュラー以下という代打とは全く意味合いが異なります。

2つ目は、投手は打撃練習をしなくて良いということ。パ・リーグの投手は打撃のことを考える必要がなく、投げる能力のみを向上させればよい。よって質が高い。

DH制の採用でチームが強くなるかは、過去のデータを調査することでわかるかもしれません。パ・リーグがDH制を採用した開始時期が1975年。セパの試合は日本シリーズでみてみます。

日本シリーズ成績

セ・リーグ 分け パ・リーグ
DH制無 1950-1974 82勝 3分 61勝
DH制有 1975-2015 115勝 4分 128勝
合計 1950-2015 197勝 7分 189勝

日本シリーズ勝率

セ・リーグ 引き分け率 パ・リーグ
DH制無 1950-1974 56.20% 2.10% 41.80%
DH制有 1975-2015 48.50% 1.70% 54.00%
合計 1950-2015 83.10% 3.00% 79.70%

日本シリーズは2015年までのトータルではセ・リーグの方が勝っています。しかし、DH制の採用後からパ・リーグの勝率はうなぎ登りで、交流戦の勝率などをみているとパ・リーグがセ・リーグを追い越すのは時間の問題かもしれません。

DH制を採用することで個々の選手の能力が向上するなら、採用した方がいいかなという思いはあります。一方でDH制が無い場合の打者の繋がりをどうするかという采配は見ていて面白い部分でもあるので、難しいところですね。

ではでは

スポンサーリンク
レクタングル(大)広告
レクタングル(大)広告

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